Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Free bets ( blog no 5)

I played the £50.00 freeze out on Tuesday at Teesside. Disappointing turnout this week as only 37 runners. Made the final but with only 7 prizes so 8th place finish for me was odds on! Luckily survived the bubble prize and finished 5th for £120.00 accumulating a £65.00 profit really enjoyed this final, it had plenty of play & to prove this when there was 7 players left it took about a hour to knock one player out. There were no major incidents really to discuss but over all a profit is a profit. I felt maybe I have at last broken the 10th -15th spell that has been apparent this year.
Friday I played the 10.00 rebuy at Teeside. As expected the numbers were down due to the Liverpool leg of the Gala poker tour. This is the first leg i have missed this year due to a pre booked holiday. With a total spend of £30.00 and a reasonable chip stack at the end of the rebuy and only 50 odd players to get through felt maybe the hoodoo was about to be broken.
I reached the final just below average chips and what followed was the shortest final I have played. Here are the hands.
(1) Dealt 8 3 pass
(2) Dealt AK raise no callers.
(3) Dealt QQ raise then get the funniest speech play of someone I have ever heard before
Don't think you can raise every hand on here m8 I know you have nowt your just a bully my Friend was here a couple of weeks ago and he said you raise with shite, I,m all in now what you going to do lets see you call that. I tell him i,m calling and i know your hand. He asks me to name his hand and i reply tens or jacks as i turn over my queens. He sheepishly turns over 10 10. A ten on the flop sends me out. The parting shot was its better to be good than lucky (think he should of reversed that quote). LOL
Taking the Friday night stranger out of the equation I played two comps and made two finals this week so things are heading in the right direction.

Thats all I have time for as i am off on our jollies. I wil explain the free bet next week and update our balance
Just out of interest tomorrow sunday we have £3oo of our bank roll on usa in the golf at 11/8 and £200 on tottenham v wigan

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Legs Eleventh (BLOG NO4)


Well after a week off after the hectic travelling between Teesside & Bolton felt recovered enough to play the £50.00 freeze out at Teesside on Tuesday. 50 odd runners made the effort to attend this popular weekly comp.
After a good start I was more than comfortable throughout the comp holding a healthy chip stack as we progressed towards the final table. With 11 players left the following happened.
A player played a bad hand badly and lost a fair few of his chips, so next hand he raised again with a bad hand which allowed him to collect the blinds & antes. The 3rd hand on the trot he raises again, when it comes to me I see A6 suited and move all me chips in. My chip stack was quite low certainly in the bottom four chip stacks, he instantly called flipped over his pocket jacks. An ace on the flop made a bad move look good but a jack on the turn sealed my fate out in 11TH.
Looking back over my play in this hand I am of the opinion I played this hand very badly, flat call maybe but all in was a bad move. Not learning from my own criteria regarding players I should have passed.
By this statement I mean from experience, a player who rises after showing a bluff has a hand especially if it is the hand after the bluff is shown.
The psychology of the player who has shown a bluff will go into the mind set of ah they think I don’t have a hands next time I raise but going even deeper into the players psyche he will also be thinking I better not bluff in the near future as I may get called.
I know this is all heavy Sigmund Freud stuff but it is the correct decision. So in reflection I should have instantly passed.
A bubble prize of £50.00 did little to cover the disappointment of my bad play.
Wednesday decided to check out the £50.00 re-buy at Stockport that I mentioned in a previous blog. Knowing that the Wednesday was the least well attended of the 3 comps they do, I knew I would have no problem gaining entry which was comforting after the 108 mile drive.
Going through my old phone numbers found a contact that paid me in so knew it was not going to be a wasted journey.
The comp is held in a casino called casino 36 & all I can say it is fantastic. The decor is like a old style gentleman’s club all wooden panelled walls and a excellent buffet
.The comp only attracted 35 players apparently Ramadan is on so a few were missing.
The 35 players still generated a prize pool of over £6 grand so good value.

Again a good start no problems to the end of the re-buy period. I took the option of a top-up as the value was there.
Going deep into the comp the blind structure caught me out a little and with 11 players left I knew I had to make a move soon.
I had already picked 2 players who I was going to push against and when one of my targets raised in first position I re-raised holding pocket 8’s. He sheepishly had to call as he had put to many chips into the pot and turned over the monster hand of A2 off suit. Two aces on the flop sent me out in 11th place again with no reward for the right play but hey that’s poker. I will definitely play again here but probably on a Monday or Friday as the pots are bigger than the normal Wednesday.
The second Sunday of the month they hold a £250.00 re-buy. Last few months had 39 players & generated a pot of £41,250, defiantly one for the diary.
Starting in October a new casino in Huddersfield opens and they are starting a £50.00 re-buy on a Sunday. I know this will be well attended as Huddersfield has a good catchment area Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester etc. Huddersfield is only 50 miles from Teesside not that far so maybe a good comp on the horizon.
Played Friday’s £10.00 re-buy at Teesside along with the other 90 hopefuls. After a few re-buys (7) I ended up having to add on and top up at the break. Armed with 3000 chips I set about the table with gusto and ended up going out 14th, again low on chips forcing my hand. Now this is getting a bit frustrating these deep finishes but no results.
Talking to some players and friends it’s been pointed out that maybe I am trying too hard to make the final rather than gathering chips as I used to do. I am not sure if this analysis is correct but is something i am going to have to correct. I must admit I felt a bit stale lately especially at Teesside. I am a little disappointed at the prize funds at Teesside and i know that is something that bothers me.
I have a holiday booked next Sunday so a week in the sun may recharge my batteries hopefully. Also the hunger seems to have diminished a tad but I am on the case.
Played Tuesdays dealers choice cash game Tuesdays night for approx 2 hours, walking off with £255.00 profit. Also had a go at the hold‘em cash game on Friday only played a hour and broke even. I did feel tired during that cash game so maybe that holiday can’t come soon enough.
Down to the sports betting and maybe you all missed the best opportunity this year on Monday. Federer was 8/15 on Betfair to beat Murray!!!!!!!!!!!A opportunity not to be missed so i lumped £300 of our bank roll along with a large sum of me own pennies onto Federer, no shock with the result Federer winning 3 sets to zero.
Bankroll profit on this bet £162.00#
I followed this bet up with Russia to beat Wales on Wednesday, again the sum of £300 was invested on Russia winning 2-1. A saving bet developed on Betfair in this game in the 83/84th minute the draw came up as 90-1 so £20 on the draw covered our win bet on Russia if Wales happened to nick a goal which they did not.Profit off this bet £108.00
Saturday bought our first losing bet with Leicester going down 1-0 at home to Millwall, but a good recovery with Portsmouth beating Middlesbrough and Chelsea just above evens to beat man city. This resulted in a profit of £291.00 off the three sat bets.
I have my eye on QPR at home to Southampton tomorrow the odds are not quite correct (QPR are currently at odds of 4/5 at home to Southampton) just going to do more research before deciding and see the team news tomorrow, as writing this Saturday night. If i do decide to punt on QPR the stake will be £100.00
Looking at sports betting as a income thought i would give you some insight into my thinking. Firstly what I look for is the wrong odds but not in the sense that some publications on the subject preach.
Most so called experts say as a example if Man Utd were playing Hartlepool and Hartlepool’s odds should be 20-1 but are being offered at 40-1 then you should back Hartlepool as the odds are over generous. Well I don’t agree with this theory all I look for are the wrong odds on a result that i think is going to happen.
As a example today Middlesbrough v Portsmouth. Portsmouth had got there bad start out of the way after a away win in their last game. Middlesbrough struggled to beat stoke in there last home game and had key players out both in attack and defence. So in my opinion Portsmouth should be priced at maybe 4/7 on but they were 2.12 0n Betfair which equates to 11/10, totally the wrong odds in my opinion so hence the punt.
The other criteria is the amount of % bankroll you should place on a single bet. The general consensus is never more than 5% on one bet.
This i agree with but allow myself I little flexibility on this subject, But once the stakes increase this becomes a absolute cast in stone rule.
With the advancement in betting exchanges more people are becoming sports traders betting and laying which would seem to be the sensible way to go but I prefer betting sports as I enjoy the research and info gathering. As long as it’s done within bankroll criteria and sensible and not on horse racing it is not so difficult.
Betfair trading activity on Thursday & Friday produced a profit of £180.00 for a measly 8 hours work well pleased#
.Sunday decide to risk a £100.00 of our bankroll on QPR to beat Southampton. Spent well over a hour researching this match & decided it was worth the punt. Approached this match with a bit of caution regarding the stake as QPR had their top scorer suspended but with odds of on Betfair felt it was worth the risk as in my opinion the odds should of been about 1.45ish. Got in a great position, protecting our £77.00 profit as was able to risk £2.00 & £3.00 on the draw & Southampton which give us a profit no matter what the result. In the end QPR ran out comfortable winners at 4-1, which results in £77.00 profit minus £5.00 totalling £72.00 from the bet.#
So looking at our bankroll last week it finished on £1 1,274.00
This week poker comps is a minus £ 120.00 (includes fuel costs)
sports betting is a plus £ 633.00
cash games is a plus £ 255.00
Betfair activity is a plus £ 180.00
Total weekly profit of £1048.00 taking our bankroll up to £ 12,322.00.
To summarise all seems to be running smoothly except poker comps & that’s what I’m supposed to be slightly better than average at!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As a footnote I bet £10.00 on Kevin Keegan becoming next Newcastle manager at odds of 17-1
earlier this week not a bad novelty bet me thinks.
Well that’s all this week thanks for all the comments